Long time lurker, first post. On the Oracle page every call has a conviction score and a little signal strength meter. Are those the same number shown twice? If not, what is the difference?
How does signal strength actually work? Is it the same as conviction?
QuietPlaceQuinnFanOriginal post#1 TickerTombstoneInvestor#2 Not the same. I think of strength as how loud the tape is and conviction as how much the rules believe it. But I would love the official version.
SignalWardenStaffMod#3 Good question and a common one. Short version:
Signal strength is about the inputs. It measures how many rows in the current window support the call, how many distinct sources they came from, and how fresh they are. Lots of recent rows from Reddit, YouTube, News and box office all pointing the same way means strong signal.
Conviction is the output of the rule. It takes that evidence and asks how cleanly it matches the rule's pattern, then applies penalties, like the single source haircut. So you can have strong signal and middling conviction when there is plenty of chatter but it is messy or contradictory. Both numbers are on the Method page with the exact weights. Neither of them is a prediction of anything guaranteed.
QuietPlaceQuinnFan#4 That makes sense. So strong signal and low conviction basically means "everyone is talking, nobody agrees"?
SignalWardenStaffMod#5 Exactly that. Those calls are often the most interesting to read the citations on.
VolatilityVampireInvestor#6 Strong signal, low conviction is my favorite weather. That is where the Fear gauge gets jumpy.
SpreadsheetSpecterFan#7 For anyone who wants to check this themselves: Export gives you both columns per call in the JSON. I plotted them against each other and the scatter is loose. Strength clusters high on weekends, conviction does not follow it.
CoverageGoblinCreator#8 This is the clearest explanation of a scoring system I have read all year, and I read contest rubrics for a living.