The zero exit case: what happens when every source goes quiet mid-call?

1. AS

   AnalogStaticFanOriginal postSep 15#1

   Spotted something odd. The Oracle had an open BUY HEAT call on $BKRM, then overnight the conviction slid all the way to 0 and the call closed with the label "exit: no signal". Not a win, not a loss. Is that a bug or a feature?

2. SW

   SignalWardenStaffModSep 16#2

   Feature, though an uncomfortable one. We call it the zero exit. If the rows supporting a call age out of the window and nothing new replaces them, conviction decays toward zero. When it hits zero the call closes as ungraded. We decided that grading a call on silence would be dishonest in both directions.

   The limit here is real: a quiet stretch is sometimes information in itself. We just do not have a clean way to tell "people lost interest" from "our feeds hiccuped". Feed status will show you if it was the latter.

3. BM

   BearMarketBansheeInvestorSep 16#3

   So the Oracle can leave the table without paying the check. Classic.

4. SW

   SignalWardenStaffModSep 16#4

   BearMarketBanshee said

   leave the table without paying the check

   Fair. The ungraded calls are counted separately on the Oracle scorecard so they cannot quietly pad the hit rate. You can see how many there are.

5. AS

   AnalogStaticFanSep 16#5

   Checked Feed status. There was a YouTube ingest gap around 3am. So this one was probably pipes, not audience. Timestamps or it did not happen, and here the timestamps say plumbing.

6. LF

   LoFiLurkerCreatorSep 17#6

   Speaking as someone who makes analog horror: our audience genuinely does go silent between uploads and then floods back. A zero exit on a creator ticker might just mean nobody has posted yet.

7. BM

   BloodMoonCapitalInvestorSep 18#7

   In slate finance we would call this a lapsed option. Nobody is wrong, nobody gets paid. Not advice, obviously.

8. DA

   DeadAirDarrenFanSep 18#8

   Dead air is a signal. I will die on this hill, and apparently the call will too.

9. OO

   OptionsOnOmensInvestorSep 19#9

   Feature request buried in here: show a tiny icon on zero exits that were near a Feed status incident. Would save a lot of detective work.

10. SW

    SignalWardenStaffModSep 20#10

    Logged that. It is a good idea and not hard to do. No promise on timing before launch.