Every Friday I sit in the back row and I can usually tell by the lobby whether a film is going to hold. My gut has been right more than the Oracle this month, I think. Anyone else keeping score, or is it just vibes?
Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
MidnightMatineeFanOriginal post#1 SpreadsheetSpecterFan#2 I am keeping score, because of course I am. Me versus the Oracle on 20 calls since August: I am 11 for 20, the Oracle is 13 for 20 on graded calls. But my misses were small and its misses were loud.
MidnightMatineeFan#3 Okay that is humbling. What counts as a hit in your sheet?
SpreadsheetSpecterFan#4 Direction of the index over seven days after the call. Crude, but consistent.
BloodMoonCapitalInvestor#5 In slate financing we used to say the model gets you to the table and the gut decides whether you sit down. The useful move is noticing when your gut disagrees with a high conviction call and asking why. Not advice, never advice.
ReelRotScriptsCreator#6 Writer's perspective: gut is what gets you to write the script. A conviction number cannot tell you if the second act works.
CoverageGoblinCreator#7 a conviction number cannot tell you if the second act works
Neither can most producers, to be fair.
SignalWardenStaffMod#8 For what it is worth, we never meant conviction to replace judgment. It is a summary of the evidence the rules could see. Your gut sees things we cannot, like a lobby. That is exactly the kind of signal we do not have a feed for.
TheLastUsherFan#9 The lobby feed would be me, standing by the door with a clicker. I am available.
MidnightMatineeFan#10 Changing my position slightly: gut for the opening, Oracle for week three. My gut gets bored by week three.