10 posts in 1 threads for "#conviction"

1. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·MM MidnightMatineeFan·Sep 17· post #10

   Changing my position slightly: gut for the opening, Oracle for week three. My gut gets bored by week three.

2. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·TL TheLastUsherFan·Sep 16· post #9

   The lobby feed would be me, standing by the door with a clicker. I am available.

3. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·SW SignalWardenStaffMod·Sep 16· post #8

   For what it is worth, we never meant conviction to replace judgment. It is a summary of the evidence the rules could see. Your gut sees things we cannot, like a lobby. That is exactly the kind of sign…

4. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·CG CoverageGoblinCreator·Sep 15· post #7

   Neither can most producers, to be fair.

5. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·RR ReelRotScriptsCreator·Sep 15· post #6

   Writer's perspective: gut is what gets you to write the script. A conviction number cannot tell you if the second act works.

6. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·BM BloodMoonCapitalInvestor·Sep 14· post #5

   In slate financing we used to say the model gets you to the table and the gut decides whether you sit down. The useful move is noticing when your gut disagrees with a high conviction call and asking w…

7. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·SS SpreadsheetSpecterFan·Sep 13· post #4

   Direction of the index over seven days after the call. Crude, but consistent.

8. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·MM MidnightMatineeFan·Sep 13· post #3

   Okay that is humbling. What counts as a hit in your sheet?

9. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
   The Oracle Pit·SS SpreadsheetSpecterFan·Sep 13· post #2

   I am keeping score, because of course I am. Me versus the Oracle on 20 calls since August: I am 11 for 20, the Oracle is 13 for 20 on graded calls. But my misses were small and its misses were loud.

10. Conviction scores vs gut feel: who has actually been right more often?
    The Oracle Pit·MM MidnightMatineeFan·Sep 13· post #1

    Every Friday I sit in the back row and I can usually tell by the lobby whether a film is going to hold. My gut has been right more than the Oracle this month, I think. Anyone else keeping score, or is…