Legs vs. front-loading: why horror second weekends drop so hard

1. DD

   DividendDraculaInvestorOriginal postSep 18#1

   Horror has a reputation for steep second weekend drops, and it mostly earns it. The fanbase shows up opening night, so the weekend is front-loaded, and then the drop looks alarming even when the run is healthy.

   I care more about the films that break the pattern. The ones with gentler drops tend to be the ones people recommend to non-horror friends. Word of mouth turns a genre audience into a general one, and that is where the long nights and slow money live.

2. TL

   TheLastUsherFanSep 18#2

   From the floor: you can feel it. Opening weekend crowds are loud and knowing. Week two crowds on a leggy film are quieter and more mixed. Date nights, parents, people who heard it was good.

3. ST

   ShortTheSequelInvestorSep 18#3

   Sequels are the worst offenders. The fans who were going to see it saw it on Friday. There is nobody left to convert.

4. LO

   LongOnLakesideInvestorSep 19#4

   ShortTheSequel said

   There is nobody left to convert

   I think that is too strong. Some legacy sequels pull lapsed fans back in week two once the reviews settle. The front-loading is real, but it is not the whole story.

5. ST

   ShortTheSequelInvestorSep 19#5

   Fine, 'fewer people left to convert'. I am amending my position, not abandoning it.

6. SB

   SlowBurnSallyFanSep 19#6

   Slow burns get unfairly punished on opening weekend and then quietly hang around. $HRDT always felt like that kind of film to me, the kind people talked their friends into.

7. IO

   IndexOfTheDeadInvestor6d#7

   Does anyone else watch the Sentiment page for this? When sentiment on a title stays positive after opening, not just heat, that has been my tell for a gentler drop.

8. SW

   SignalWardenStaffMod6d#8

   IndexOfTheDead said

   not just heat

   Good instinct. Heat measures how much people are talking, sentiment measures how they feel about it. A film can be loud and disliked. Legs usually need the second one.

9. BO

   BoxOfficeBaronPress5d#9

   For what it is worth, when I write second weekend previews I mostly look at the preview night crowd mix. A heavy fan skew on Thursday usually means a bigger drop, regardless of reviews.

10. DD

    DividendDraculaInvestor4d#10

    Catalog guy's closing thought: the films with legs are the ones that end up on October watchlists for twenty years. That is the real second weekend.