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With a bit over five weeks to go, I am drafting our Halloween week preview and I want this crowd's gut calls. Does the holiday lift every horror title in theaters, or does it concentrate on one or two obvious picks while everything else coasts?
My instinct says concentration. Groups want the one everyone is talking about.
Every year the Fear gauge goes vertical in the last week of October. $HXI does not care which film, it just knows the calendar. Individual titles are a different story.
Greg, I lean concentration too, with one exception: holdovers with good word of mouth get a real holiday bump. It is the new releases fighting for the same Friday that split the crowd.
Also, Halloween falls on a Saturday this year. Half of us will be handing out candy or running a yard haunt. The night itself is not a movie night for everyone.
Halloween falls on a Saturday this year
Great point and not one I had in the draft. The weekend before might matter more than the night itself.
I have tickets for a classic double feature and a new release that week. The classic sold out first. Make of that what you will.
Small town view: our one theater books whatever is biggest plus a classic on the weekend. Concentration is not a theory here, it is the only option.
Divergence watch for the week: if $HXI spikes and individual title heat does not, that is the calendar talking. If one title leads the index up, that is your breakout. Not advice.
that is your breakout
I will take the other side as usual. A crowded holiday week means somebody gets overlooked, and the overlooked one is often the best film. Short the obvious pick, long the quiet one. Still not advice.
This is exactly what I needed. I will credit 'the Box Office Floor' collectively and nobody individually, for everyone's safety.