21 posts in 15 threads for "@ShortTheSequel"
- Call your shots: the weekly thread (week of Sept 21)
$SAWX flat to down, conviction 55. Franchise fatigue, round forty. I will be wrong again and I will be at peace with it.
- The slasher revival: real recovery or a dead cat bounce with a machete?
Fine. Real revival. I am keeping my hedge on franchise fatigue though. Someone has to be the killjoy in the third act.
- Legacy sequel fatigue: real signal or just loud people online?
Okay, updating my thesis: fatigue is real in sentiment, murkier in tickets, and mostly a story problem. Still short, just less smug about it.
- How acquisitions talk moves genre buzz (and how the board reacts)
The inverse is fun too. Franchise entries mostly skip the festival route and the board barely moves until the trailer drops. Different game entirely.
- Legs vs. front-loading: why horror second weekends drop so hard
Fine, 'fewer people left to convert'. I am amending my position, not abandoning it.
- Legs vs. front-loading: why horror second weekends drop so hard
Sequels are the worst offenders. The fans who were going to see it saw it on Friday. There is nobody left to convert.
- Do premium formats actually help horror, or is that just for blockbusters?
Premium pricing also inflates the gross without adding people. Watch attendance rather than dollars when a horror film gets a big format run.
- Legacy sequel fatigue: real signal or just loud people online?
No, but sentiment does, and sentiment is where fatigue shows up first. Loud and sour is not the same as loud and excited.
- Legacy sequel fatigue: real signal or just loud people online?
My flair says it: franchise fatigue is a real signal. But I want to pressure test it. When I look at $SLSH against the legacy titles, chatter around long running franchises skews toward complaints, ev…
- Which genre index is most undervalued right now? Make your case
Contrarian take: $FOUN. Found footage keeps getting written off and keeps coming back. The $BKRM and $KNPX adjacency is holding it up in a way the headline index hides.
- Is Reddit weighted too heavily? Half the attribution bars are orange
Publishing the trade-off before shipping it is the right move. Consider me grudgingly less annoyed.
- Audience fatigue with jumpscare thumbnails: is the red arrow era ending?
Fatigue is a real signal. It works on franchises and it works on faces with their mouths open.
- The slasher revival: real recovery or a dead cat bounce with a machete?
Half of the $SLSH lift is $TRFR and $SCRM chatter. Strip out the franchise names and the index looks a lot more ordinary. I remain short on the idea that sequels equal a movement.
- $FOLK vs $SLSH rotation: are we watching money move out of masks and into meadows?
And the rotation will flip hard around Halloween. Slashers own the last two weeks of October every year.
- Horror podcasts as IP farms: are fiction feeds the new spec pile?
Healthy skepticism: an IP farm produces a lot of seedlings. Very few become trees. An audience for a free weekly feed does not automatically buy a ticket.
- Is Reddit weighted too heavily? Half the attribution bars are orange
Okay, but the effect is the same. If one source floods the window, it drives the call.
- Is Reddit weighted too heavily? Half the attribution bars are orange
Scroll the Oracle page and count the attribution bars. On most calls Reddit is the widest band by a lot. Reddit is a loud room, but it is one room. Are we building a market terminal or a subreddit moo…
- Survival horror remakes vs new IP: which one should the market reward?
Franchise fatigue is real, but remakes are weirdly immune to it. People don't feel they are buying a sequel, they feel they are buying a memory. Different signal.
- Horror game adaptations to film and TV: what finally started working?
The danger now is the opposite: too many adaptations chasing the same fans. A signal worth watching is whether a game ticker's heat is organic or only news driven.
- Aged badly: the $SLSH SELL at conviction 68, then everyone went to the movies
In fairness I also read the complaints and agreed with them. Franchise fatigue is real. It just turns out people complain about slashers on the way to see slashers.
- $TLOU and prestige horror TV: does 'prestige' make horror better or safer?
I think both. Prestige money buys craft, but it also buys caution. The weird edges get sanded off when a lot is on the line.