18 posts in 14 threads for "@BoxOfficeBaron"
- Opening weekend calls: soft tracking vs. loud chatter, which do you trust?
Yes please. Post it here when you can, I want to see where it breaks.
- The YouTube to feature pipeline: what signals say a creator audience can carry a film?
Someday is a perfectly good release window.
- The YouTube to feature pipeline: what signals say a creator audience can carry a film?
I like this, and it is testable on the terminal. Lore mentions versus creator name mentions on the same title line.
- Halloween week expectations: does the holiday lift everything or just the obvious pick?
Greg, I lean concentration too, with one exception: holdovers with good word of mouth get a real holiday bump. It is the new releases fighting for the same Friday that split the crowd.
- Opening weekend calls: soft tracking vs. loud chatter, which do you trust?
Agreed on persistence. A spike that survives the weekend before release is worth more than a bigger one on trailer day.
- Why does one source show 'stale' in Feed status while the rest are fresh?
Guessing here, but box office numbers do not move every 15 minutes in the real world. Most of it lands in batches.
- Opening weekend calls: soft tracking vs. loud chatter, which do you trust?
Recurring question in my inbox: what do you do when traditional tracking looks soft but the audience chatter is loud? That gap is where most of my opening weekend calls go wrong. My rule of thumb is t…
- The YouTube to feature pipeline: what signals say a creator audience can carry a film?
Sunday estimates are my religion, but lately some of the most interesting horror lines I watch are not box office at all. $IRON, $BKRM and $SKNM keep showing up in chatter with creator tickers attache…
- Legs vs. front-loading: why horror second weekends drop so hard
For what it is worth, when I write second weekend previews I mostly look at the preview night crowd mix. A heavy fan skew on Thursday usually means a bigger drop, regardless of reviews.
- Export question: what do the heat, delta and signal columns mean?
Useful thread. The blanks in signal had me thinking something was broken.
- Worst theater audience story you have ever witnessed
Someone please pitch walkout counts as a CRYPT signal. The Walkout Index. I would read it every Sunday.
- How acquisitions talk moves genre buzz (and how the board reacts)
Box office guy here: I have seen plenty of festival darlings open soft and plenty of quiet ones find long legs. In my experience festival buzz predicts reviews better than it predicts weekends.
- Do premium formats actually help horror, or is that just for blockbusters?
Short answer from the estimates side: it helps when the film is built for it. Big sound design, wide shots, something that feels like an event. It helps less for a contained two hander in a kitchen.
- How usernames and flair will work when posting opens
Press flair here. For what it is worth, I like that it does not give us any extra weight. Estimates are estimates.
- Is Reddit weighted too heavily? Half the attribution bars are orange
It does not. Opening weekend crowds are much broader than any forum. That is why I only trust calls with a real box office band on them.
- Pacific Time for everyone, or my local time?
Counterpoint from the box office side: one clock makes comparing notes easier. When someone says 'the Fear gauge spiked at 9 PT' everyone knows which 9.
- Aged badly: the $SLSH SELL at conviction 68, then everyone went to the movies
From the Sunday estimates side: the Oracle is always going to be half a weekend behind on theatrical. Estimates land Sunday, actuals Monday. Anyone reading a Friday call about a weekend should mentall…
- Spanish horror after [REC]: what did it change?
Worth saying that an American remake of a European hit usually tells you more about the original's reputation than about the remake. $RECF is a good example of an original that kept its heat.